When you talk with the more successful investors and traders in the Forex market many of them will lay claim to the fact that the driving force behind their success has been their ability to skillfully predict the movements in the market. In order to profit from trading within the Forex market, the individual must have a fairly thorough understanding of the factors that affect the movement of a currency’s rate of exchange. The following five factors will enable the investor to make more accurate predictions in this movement, thus enabling themselves a better opportunity for success.
Factor 1 – Economic Growth
Normally, the stronger a country’s economy is, the greater the possibility that its central banks will raise interest rates in order to arrest inflationary growth. The higher those interest rates go, the greater the participation by investors in that country’s financial marketplaces. When you see increasing numbers of investors participating in that particular country’s markets, demands for that currency increases in coincidental fashion. Greater demand equals an increase in the currency’s exchange rate.
Factor 2 – Geo Politics
Nothing deters a person from looking at the business section in the local tabloids more than boring economic statistics and dull accounting numbers. Well, to offset this disdain, you’ll be happy to know that the currency exchange market is the only one of the global financial markets that can be successfully traded by virtue of political as well as economic news. Remember that currencies are representative of countries rather than companies. Any disturbance to the political landscape will oftentimes affect the direction in which the exchange rate moves.
Factor 3 – Interest Rates
The value of a country’s currency increases coincidentally with a rise in interest rates. The increased value of the currency reflects what is called capital appreciation, and this consequently affords the investor the opportunity to profit. Every currency rate comes packaged with an interest rate attached. Interest income is generated in one of the following two ways:
1. buy currencies from countries with high interest rates
2. finance these purchases with currency from countries with low interest rates
Factor 4 – Mergers and Acquisitions
This is considered the least important of the five factors when it comes to predicting the direction that a currency rate will travel in. However, it is oftentimes the most powerful force where near term currency moves are considered. Mergers and acquisitions occur when a company from one economic region wants to purchase a corporation in another country. The wise investor will keep on top of this sort of activity in that it helps to predict short term movements in the Forex market.
Factor 5 – Trade and Capital Flows
Before ever making a final prediction regarding the movement (or trend) of a particular currency you should determine whether or not the currency is dependent on its country’s capital or trade flow. Capital flow refers to the amount of investment a country receives from international sources. Trade flow is the income resulting from trade. Some countries can be very dependent their capital flow, while other countries are extremely sensitive to trade flows.
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